A Win and a Loss

I spent my Sunday afternoon watching the Redskins eventually lose the Philadelphia Eagles. I always leave the bar after a Redskins loss thinking to myself, "What a way to waste a Sunday afternoon." But for most of the game Sunday I thought the Redskins were in control. There was no way, I audibly muttered to myself, that the Skins were going to lose. They seemed to have things wrapped up. But then, the play calling devolved. (A draw on third and goal??? What the hell???) The defense reverted to 2006 fashion, giving up a big pass play and a screen that went 50+ yards for a TD. That about sealed the deal for the Skins. I know they're still 5-4, but I think that loss effectively ended Washington's season. Skins play in Dallas next week, so they'll almost certainly be 5-5 after Sunday afternoon's onslaught. And that should do it, unless they rip off at least five wins in their six games after the Dallas contest. A 10-6 record might get them in, but with each division and conference loss they accumulate, they lose a number of tiebreakers. When Washington went to the playoffs two years ago, they were 10-6, and they only lost two games in the conference. They've already lost three NFC games this year.

The Positives:

• Clinton Portis is beginning to run the ball well again. If he had been running the whole season like he's running now, this team would probably be in better shape. The Skins only chance for a win against Dallas is for Portis to go crazy and break off long runs and touchdowns.
• The Skins finally freed Jason Campbell and let him throw a little bit. He did pretty well, converting on third downs and tossing three TDs to wide receivers. I think it's becoming more and more clear every day that Campbell simply doesn't have reliable receivers, which is why his progress has been stunted. The Skins need to sign some tall, skilled receivers to complement their small, speedy ones.
• The offensive line, makeshift as it is, is finally coming together. They're run blocking better. They're pass blocking better. There's some encouragement in that area.

The Negatives:

• Gregg Williams has become a one-trick pony this year. I'm sure he knows the offense doesn't score a lot of points, but he can't let that affect his defense too much. He refuses to call blitzes or send pressure of any kind toward a QB. That hurt him against the Eagles. The front four got no pressure, and Donovon McNabb had as much time as he needed to find receives. He's going to have to pressure Tony Romo on Sunday. Especially because ...
• Sean Taylor is out indefinitely with a knee sprain. Skins say about two weeks, but it's probably more than that. If Taylor isn't playing, the Skins lose an intimidating force in the defensive backfield. They also lose a ball hawk who's been picking off passes this year. If he's not back there, Williams better find another way to create turnovers.
• Jason Campbell continues to fumble the football. He absolutely has to hold onto the ball. His propensity for coughing it up is becoming a disturbing trend. Coaches won't trust him back there if he can't secure the football. His Tiki-like fumble-itis is nerve wracking.

So here the Skins sit at 5-4. Washington is a team that could very easily have just one loss. It's a team that also could very easily have just one win. That's why the Skins are mediocre, and it's why an 8-8 record is more realistic than a 10-6 one. Playoffs? I would say no. Emphatically.

But while the Skins were choking away yet another football game, the Washington Wizards were finally securing their first win in Atlanta against a Hawks team that counted the Mavericks and Suns as wins early in the season. What I saw from most of that game was the Wizards team that can be unbeatable. They weren't perfect. They let a 19-point, third-quarter lead dwindle down to single digits in the fourth quarter. But they did show signs of breaking out of their offensive slump.

So far this year, aside from the Denver game really, I've seen a Wizards team more dedicated to defense. Their rotations have been crisp. Their pick-and-roll defense has been more sound. Their double downs and cover downs have been faster coming. They've close out on shooters better. They've simply done a better job of locking down opponents. There's still A LOT to work on on the defensive end. Players, particularly Gilbert and Caron, continue to sag too far from their men, focusing more on the ball to get steals, which leaves players wide open for 3-point attempts. But overall, I've seen marked improvement. Early against the Hawks, the Wizards covered a pick-and-roll and rotated defenders quickly to cover the open men around the perimeter. I said to myself, "That's the best pick-and-roll and rotation I've ever seen from a Wizards team." They need to keep that up.

The offense looked crisp, too. They passed the ball well. Their shots fell. They got good penetration. They didn't stall too much. Everything looked much tighter. The questions is, as Gilbert said post game, will this win lead to more wins? Or will it just be one win? If they rip off a few in a row--and they should be able to, considering their opponents at home against Pacers, at Timberwolves, at home against Blazers--then the win against Atlanta will mean something. But if they drop another couple in a row, then the win against the Hawks was just a win, because even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while.