I had a brief conversation through AIM this morning with my boy Justin. He wanted to refute an assertion I made two posts ago about the Wizards having the potential to push 50 wins. Essentially, in blunt terms, he said there's no way the Wizards reach the half-century plateau obstensibly because losing Jared Jeffries (6 pgg, 5 rpg, 2 apg) would have a bigger impact on this team than I would acknowledge. (I'm sure Justin realizes, as do I, that the bigger reason why this team may not win 50 is because of it's complete aversion to defense.) So Justin and I chatted it out briefly. But his remark sounded familiar. He wasn't alone. In fact, many other knowledgeable Spalding-ites have said the same thing. Justin himself is quite acquainted with the intricies of the NBA game. He has a vast awareness of professional basketball, which is why I respect his opinion on all things NBA so much. But Jared Jeffries draws my ire, and I was compelled to disagree with him vehemently. Frankly, Jeffries is a bum. He's an overhyped defensive player with staggeringly underwhelming offensive statistics. His inability to hit open jumpers and convert lay ups -- please keep in mind he's 6-foot-11 -- is unparalleled in this league. Is it wrong of me if I'd rather have Kwame Brown on my team than Jared Jeffries?
Don't get me wrong. Justin, I think, perceives of Jeffries as a bust in the league. Still, Justin recognizes something in the man that many others have noticed, as well. As I said, Justin isn't a single, solitary voice in this argument. It seems that I'm the minority in this discussion, which is fine, but completely unfathomable to me because a simple perusal of this guy's stats clearly demonstrates that he's a 20-minute-a-game role player who has few redeeming basketball qualities. He certainly wasn't worth the five years and $30 million the New York Knicks gave him.
I went searching the Web to see what people were saying about the Wizards decision not to match that enormous and ludicrous offer sheet. It seems that overall, more people conluded that the move didn't hurt the Wizards; rather, it significantly helped the Knicks. Isiah Thomas said Jeffries' versitility would add another dimension to his dysfunctional team. CNNSI.com's Chris Mannix agrees, calling Jeffries and the Knicks a perfect fit. Why? Because Jeffries landed in a similar situation, siging with a team chock full of scorers. In NY, like in D.C., he'll be asked to play defense, which Mannix says Jeffries did "effectively." That's a nice vague term for his defensive effort. I guess effective is accurate, but certainly, his skills on that side of the ball have been extremely overrated. Mike Kahn called Jeffries "cat quick." Maybe in the land of NFL offensive linemen he's "cat quick," but against an NBA shooting guard, he's a sloth. If it's a catch-and-shoot 2, then Jeffries' height and length cause problems for the other team. If the 2 is a slasher, say like a Tracy McGrady, Jeffries might as well be a matador. As for guarding a four or five, give me a break. The guy's slight as can be. He gets muscled underneath by the bigger players.
Marc Stein of ESPN.com, a respected basketball analyst, said, "On the surface, it looks as though the Wiz absorbed a significant free-agent defection for the second successive offseason." Significant is a stretch. (Stein did laud the Wizards for replacing Jeffries with more affordable pieces. Of course, he did an about face and said the Wizards' offseason ranked ninth in the Eastern Conference. But look who he placed below the Wizards.I see no mention of Jeffries there.) Despite Stein's affirmation of Washington's offseason, ultimately, it appears as though he thinks Jeffries departure was consequential. Just look at where he positioned the Wizards in his Power Rankings.
The Jared Jeffries hype is a product of his height. Team execs always see something in taller players, blindly attaching the fortunes of thier organization on a 7-foot frame with limited skill. These tall players are like the ugly chicks at frat parties. The drunk Pi Kapps can't tell if the girls are attractive, but they're drunk, so who cares? NBA teams are the same way. They have their "beanstalk goggles" on. If a front office exec notices a 7-footer, then all of sudden that guy has promise and the potential to be an impact player.
I went to 82games.com to look at some statistics. Overall, it would appear that Jeffries added a powerful defensive contribution to the team last year. But let's look a little closer at the 5-man unit stats on the page for Jeffries because defense is a team-oriented activity, and one man can't stop an entire team. Last year's starting lineup for a majority of the season consisted of Jeffries, Gilbert Arenas, Antawn Jamison, Brendan Haywood and Caron Butler. With all of them on the floor at the same time, they scored three more points than they allowed. Certainly not much difference there. In fact, the two most significant point differentials occured when Jeffries was on the floor with Antonio Daniels. As far as defense goes, the most effective tandem was Jeffries-Arenas-Butler-Daniels-Haywood, although those five played a combined 33 minutes together. What this says to me is that Jeffries added practically no special defensive dimension when he played with the starters, but when Daniels came in to lock up a two guard, Jeffries became more effective guarding a 3. When he had to man-up a 4 or a 2, he was as able as anyone else. I glean from all of this that Jeffries is more suited to guarding a small forward, making him less versatile than most people think.
But, in case you need more evidence, let's take a look at Daniels' stats from 82games.com. When he was on the floor with Arenas-Butler-Jamison-Haywood, the Wizards outscored thier opponents by 41 points. Replace Haywood with Ruffin, and the Wizards scored 66 more points than the other team. Hmmm, I'm thinking Daniels was a more effective defender. Or, maybe he was just a more effective and efficient offensive player. I think it's a little of both. And for kicks, let's look at Butler's 5-man unit stats. In the 10 combos listed, only one shows opponents scoring more points than the Wizards. In my mind, Butler was a more aggressive and physical defender who could do more to frustrate an opposing player than Jeffries.
The Wizards did a nice job of replacing Jeffries with DeShawn Stevenson, a guy who can drop 11 and play good defense in the back court. He came at a much cheaper price and because he failed to cash in on what he perceived his market value to be, he'll probably display some extra motivation. He's got a chip on his shoulder, so he should mesh nicely with the enigmatic Arenas, who always carries a grudge. The point of all of this, though, is to demonstrate that Jeffries is most certainly not an elite, or even mediocre, player in this league. Now, could that all change? Of course. Maybe being in New York sparks a career revival for the Indiana alum. But if history is any indication, New York is just getting another expensive underachiever who will add little to that muddled roster.
9/30/06
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That 82 game web site is a pretty cool defense (lol). I still think that Jeffries was the Wizards' best defender last year, not on pure talent alone (that honor may in fact go to Caron Butler or Antonio Daniels), but because, like I said in our IM, Jeffries presents the opposition with an awkward match-up. He's long and quick, surely quicker than you give him credit for.
Go Mavericks...
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